Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated sharply on Thursday, as the Pakistani government said it would consider it “an act of war” if India followed through on a threat to block the flow of crucial rivers as punishment for a deadly militant attack in Kashmir.
After a high-level meeting of Pakistan’s National Security Committee, the government announced a series of sweeping retaliatory measures, including the closing of its airspace to Indian carriers, a reduction of India’s diplomatic staff in Islamabad and a suspension of all trade with India.
The Indian government has not officially identified any group as being behind the attack on Tuesday in a scenic tourist area of Indian-administered Kashmir. But it announced a flurry of punitive measures against Pakistan on Wednesday, including the suspension of an important water treaty, in response to what it said was Pakistan’s support of terrorist attacks inside India.
On Thursday, Pakistan’s top civilian and military leadership called India’s actions — which included the revocation of visas for Pakistanis and a downgrading of diplomatic ties — “unilateral, politically motivated and legally void.” Pakistan has denied any involvement in Tuesday’s attack.
The Pakistani government reserved its strongest words for India’s actions on the water treaty, saying it would respond decisively if the rivers were blocked or diverted. Pakistan relies on water from the Indus river system, which flows through India, for about 90 percent of its agriculture.
The treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, had long been seen as a rare pillar of stability in South Asia, a framework that endured even through full-scale wars. Its unraveling now marks a rupture with huge symbolic and strategic weight.
Before the security committee meeting on Thursday, the Pakistani government had struck a measured tone after militants killed more than two dozen Indian civilians in Kashmir, insisting that it had no interest in seeing tensions with India escalate.
But across Pakistan, people are watching with growing concern as Indian officials hint at the possibility of military strikes, and the television airwaves have been filled with defense analysts warning of unpredictable consequences if hostilities between the nuclear-armed neighbors intensify.
Najm us Saqib, a former Pakistani diplomat, said the fallout from the militant attack could be lasting.
“The coming weeks and months are likely to witness heightened tensions that might culminate in destabilizing an already fragile and susceptible region,” he said.
The assault in Kashmir, a region both countries claim and have fought wars over, set off a familiar pattern.
The Indian news media, which is largely aligned with the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, quickly pointed a finger at Pakistan. Pakistan accused India of trying to deflect attention from security lapses in the restive region.
Western intelligence officials have said that Pakistani security services allow anti-India militants to operate in Pakistan. India says those militants have crossed into Indian territory to carry out attacks.
Pakistan has pointed a finger at India, too, long accusing it of supporting a separatist insurgency in Baluchistan, a southwestern province. In recent months, attacks have spread across the province, including the deadly hijacking of a passenger train last month. Pakistan has also accused India of playing a role in militant attacks in the country’s northwest.
The last major militant assault in the Indian part of Kashmir took place in 2019, when dozens of Indian security personnel were killed. After that attack, India launched an air battle that stopped just short of all-out war.
Some Pakistani analysts warn that the current confrontation could intensify beyond the 2019 standoff. “Indian escalation already began last night, and it will be at a bigger scale than February 2019,” Syed Muhammad Ali, a security analyst in Islamabad, said on Wednesday.
He claimed that India was using the attack to seek solidarity with the United States and defuse tensions over President Trump’s threat of tariffs, as well as to reframe the push for independence in Kashmir as a terrorist movement.
As of Wednesday, Pakistani officials said they had seen no evidence of an Indian military mobilization. They said that the Pakistani military remained alert along the Line of Control separating the Indian- and Pakistani-administered parts of Kashmir.
A senior Pakistani security official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic and military matters, said that Pakistan would approach any tit-for-tat escalation carefully but would thwart incursions by India if they occurred.
Some military analysts and current and former officials accused India of staging the attack, noting that it had come while Vice President JD Vance was visiting India.
“They’re blaming Pakistan without proof,” Ahmed Saeed Minhas, a retired brigadier general, said on the television channel Geo News.
He then made a joke about the 2019 standoff between Pakistan and India, when a video emerged of an Indian Air Force pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, sipping tea while in Pakistani custody.
“If India tries anything again, they should remember — we served tea to Abhinandan in 2019,” Mr. Minhas said. “This time, we might even offer him biscuits.”
The current tensions have revived memories of the 2019 episode.
A suicide bombing that February in the city of Pulwama prompted an Indian airstrike inside Pakistan, triggering a dogfight. An Indian jet was shot down, and Wing Commander Varthaman was captured and later released — a gesture that helped cool tensions, if briefly.
Officials say the current situation differs from 2019. While the Pulwama attack was claimed by the militant Islamist group Jaish-e-Mohammed and targeted security personnel, the one on Tuesday involved unarmed civilians, and any claims of responsibility have been vague and unverified.
So far, the Pakistani military has made no public statement about Tuesday’s attack. The Foreign Ministry on Wednesday condemned the loss of life, denied any role by Pakistan and urged India to avoid “premature and irresponsible allegations.”
Officials and analysts warn that while the region avoided catastrophe in 2019, that good fortune may not repeat itself.
“During the last escalation, both India and Pakistan were lucky to step down from the ladder,” said Murtaza Solangi, a former interim information minister.
“This time, we’re in a more dangerous phase,” he said. “A fractured global order and India’s hyperventilating media make it harder for Modi to act rationally. Both countries will be net losers if India doesn’t stop this madness.”
Asfandyar Mir, a Washington-based security expert, warned that the absence of diplomatic back channels had made the situation more dangerous.
“Crises in South Asia have historically been defused through discreet communication,” he said. “That infrastructure is now missing. And that increases the risk of a miscalculation.”
