Rhine Freight Market: Low Demand and Falling Water Levels Keep Market in Check

Freight rates across all Rhine destinations remained largely stable through the period:

• 25–26 September: Rates fell slightly across most routes, with Basel losing about €1/ton, reflecting soft market sentiment amid low demand and healthy barge availability.
• 29–30 September: Despite a worsening hydrological outlook, rates stayed flat, as traders noted no urgency to move product. Spot market activity was limited to a few small fixtures.

Takeaway: The Rhine freight market remained effectively frozen in price terms, with little evidence of upward pressure despite tightening drafts.

Hydrological conditions continued to deteriorate but remained workable:

• Maxau dropped from 572 cm on 26 September to around 507 cm by 1 October, with forecasts suggesting further declines toward 480–490 cm by 5–6 October and possibly 450 cm by mid-month.
• Kaub slipped below the 230 cm mark by 1 October, and forecasts pointed toward 175–180 cm shortly thereafter.
• While these lower drafts reduced intakes on some Upper Rhine routes, they were not yet severe enough to trigger price volatility.

Takeaway: Water levels declined steadily, but efficient load management kept freight rates steady for now.

Trading volumes remained weak throughout the week:

• 25–26 September: Only two to three deals were registered per day, reflecting a lack of fresh demand.
• 29–30 September: Activity stayed subdued, with operators focused on contractual obligations rather than spot fixtures.
• 1 October: Just one deal was reported, underlining the market’s inertia.

Operators indicated that they were seeking opportunities in the ARA region to compensate for thin Rhine business.

Takeaway: The spot market remains directionless and dominated by short-term, low-volume logistics.

• Strikes at locks along the Grand Canal d’Alsace (Mackolsheim, Rhinau, Gerstheim, Strasbourg) caused minor delays but no major disruptions to Rhine flows.
• Persistent backwardation in gasoil continued to suppress speculative stocking and long-haul shipments.
• Seasonal transitions toward winter-grade products sparked some early planning discussions for October loadings but did not yet translate into tangible demand.

Takeaway: Structural and operational factors continue to suppress volatility, even as autumn supply shifts begin.

Looking ahead:

• With forecasts showing Rhine levels continuing to drop through early October, logistical flexibility may start to narrow—particularly for Upper Rhine destinations like Basel and Strasbourg.
• However, unless product demand or pricing structures change, rate movements are expected to remain flat, with only minor fluctuations around current levels.

Takeaway: The Rhine market is balanced on a knife-edge—tightening hydrology versus slack demand.

From 25 September to 2 October, the Rhine barge freight market remained operationally sound but commercially stagnant. Lower river levels, sporadic strikes, and ongoing backwardation failed to generate activity. Freight rates held steady at multi-week lows, with Basel showing the only minimal upward move. Heading into October, the market’s stability feels fragile—dependent on whether hydrological tightening finally outweighs fundamental weakness.

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