The ARA clean petroleum product (CPP) barge market in the week of 10-14 November displayed a mix of strong trading activity, slightly weaker freight rates, and increasing operational stability after months of congestion. While volumes surged early in the week, reaching the highest level since the beginning of October, the freight market itself softened as barge availability improved and blending activity for light ends eased.
1. Freight Rates: Consistent Downward Pressure Through the Week
Freight rates drifted lower across nearly all major ARA routes, with middle distillates consistently weakening and light ends undergoing modest corrections:
- 10 November: Nearly all routes saw freight declines of €0.04-0.05/ton, especially on Rotterdam–Antwerp/Amsterdam and Flushing routes. Distillates were notably weaker, while light ends held firmer in price.
- 11 November: Rates fell again by €0.07-0.09/ton for most corridors reflecting a surplus of available barges and calm demand ahead of the ICE expiry.
- 12 November: Another session of broad declines, albeit slightly smaller (-€0.02 to -€0.08), confirming a peak in October’s rate surge had passed.
- 13 November: A split picture emerged: middle distillate rates increased slightly across all routes, while light ends softened, reflecting reduced blending activity and improved discharge conditions in Amsterdam.
- 14 November: Freight rates stayed mostly flat, with very small changes (±€0.03) and overall stability across both product groups.
Takeaway: Rates trended down 2-5% week-on-week for most distillate and light-end routes. After October’s strength, the market has shifted into a softer, more liquid pricing environment.
2. Spot Volumes: From High Momentum to a Sharp Midweek Drop
Volumes fluctuated dramatically throughout the week:
- 10 November: Activity surged to 105.9 ktons, the highest since early October.
- 11 November: A steep drop to 40.5 ktons, described as “quiet,” despite many barges being offered into the market.
- 12 November: Activity rebounded to 101.4 ktons, driven by expiring ICE contracts and release of barges after long delays in the light ends segment.
- 13 November: Spot volume peaked at 126 ktons, the highest since August, as players pushed to book November-loading parcels after expiry.
- 14 November: Activity fell back to 64 ktons, with most parties postponing fresh business into the following week.
Takeaway: The market was highly ICE-expiry-driven, with volume spikes occurring on 12-13 November. Outside these days, trading interest remained cautious.
3. Product Trends: Distillates Struggle, Light Ends Lose Momentum
The week showed clear divergence between product groups:
Middle Distillates
- Rates declined steadily 10-12 November (-€0.04 to -€0.09 each day).
- Slight rebound on 13 November as post-expiry demand temporarily lifted the segment.
- Flat on 14 November amid low liquidity and growing barge availability.
Light Ends
- Prices held firmer early in the week.
- On 13 November, light ends experienced across-the-board rate decreases, attributed to vanishing Amsterdam delays and lower blending activity.
- By 14 November, rates were stable again, but liquidity was very low.
Takeaway: Distillates were more volatile, but both segments ultimately softened. Light ends face weaker fundamentals as blending slows into late November.
4. Operational Factors: Improved Fluidity After Months of Congestion
Several structural improvements were noted:
- Amsterdam delays eased significantly by midweek, freeing up barges more quickly and softening light-end prices.
- On 12 November, many barges finally completed discharging after extended delays, increasing available capacity.
- November 12-14 reports showed more voyages closed on PJK B/L basis, including several with deeper discounts as players sought to secure volumes following ICE expiry.
Takeaway: The ARA system ran more efficiently than at any time since September. This efficiency contributed directly to weaker freight momentum.
5. Market Outlook: ICE Expiry, Barge Availability, and Fading Blending Demand
Major forces shaping the week:
- ICE Gasoil November expiry drove the largest volume spikes (12-13 November) and caused temporary rate fragmentation as traders finalized positions.
- Prompt barge availability increased sharply late in the week, particularly for Monday-Tuesday loadings of the following week, signaling a shift back to oversupply conditions.
- Blending slowdown in Amsterdam reduced demand for small/light-end barges, softening rates throughout the week.
Takeaway: Fundamentals point to a softer ARA freight market heading into mid-November, with oversupply outweighing spot bursts.
Conclusion: ARA Market Softens After ICE-Driven Spike
The ARA CPP barge market in 10-14 November can be summarized in three words:
volatile, softer, stabilizing.
Rates drifted lower across most routes, volumes surged midweek due to ICE expiry, and operational fluidity improved as terminal delays eased. With barge availability rising and blending activity slowing, the market enters late November with weaker fundamentals even as occasional bursts of spot demand continue to punctuate activity.
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