ARA Freight Market: Recovery in Volumes, Stable Rates, and Persistent Delays

The final week of October brought renewed trading activity in the ARA clean petroleum product (CPP) barge market, following a sluggish start to the month. Spot volumes rebounded to multi-week highs midweek, but terminal congestion and fleet scheduling challenges continued to constrain flexibility. Freight rates fluctuated slightly early on but ended the week stable and firm, supported by steady demand and limited vessel availability.

1. Freight Rates: Early Dip Followed by Strong Recovery

• 27 October: Spot market liquidity was weak, with total volume below 30 ktons, the lowest of the month. Freight rates rose modestly (by €0.01–0.02/ton) on select routes as middle distillates dominated the few trades concluded.
• 28 October: Rates fell slightly, particularly for middle distillates (–€0.04 to –€0.12/ton across key routes) as operators caught up on backlogs from prior weeks. Light ends, however, saw small gains due to tighter tonnage availability.
• 29 October: Rates jumped sharply by up to €0.30/ton on ARA routes, and a smaller increase on Flushing and Ghent routes, marking the week’s turning point. This spike coincided with the highest daily volume (78 ktons) in two weeks, as demand outpaced barge supply and delays worsened.
• 30 October: Freight levels held firm to slightly higher for light ends (+€0.04–€0.09/ton) while middle distillate rates stabilized. Activity was strong, with volumes surpassing 80 ktons despite continued loading congestion.
• 31 October: Rates remained unchanged across all routes, marking a steady close to a volatile week. Overall freight levels ended roughly 3–5% higher than at mid-October’s close.

Takeaway: After early softness, strong midweek demand and logistical bottlenecks lifted freight rates to their highest levels since mid-September.

2. Spot Volumes: Sharp Rebound Midweek

• Volumes started low at 28 ktons on 27 October, reflecting limited liquidity amid scheduling constraints.
• On 28 October, activity improved to 43 ktons, aided by marginally better loading conditions.
• 29 October marked the busiest day of the week at 78 ktons, as traders accelerated liftings ahead of the month-end.
• 30 October remained strong at 82 ktons, while the 31 October session cooled to 55 ktons, as many operators finalized their positions for the weekend.

Takeaway: Weekly trading volumes surged over 150% compared to the previous week, underscoring recovering activity despite ongoing delays.

3. Product Trends: Distillates Lead Early, Light Ends Catch Up

• Middle distillates dominated early in the week but faced rate pressure as logistical backlogs limited fresh trades. The midweek rebound was driven largely by strong distillate flows between Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Amsterdam.
• Light ends saw a notable recovery from 29 October onward, with rates climbing steadily amid increased blending and export demand. By week’s end, light ends accounted for a larger share of total traded volume than distillates.

Takeaway: Both product segments ended the week firmer, with light ends outperforming distillates after midweek.

4. Operational Dynamics: Congestion Still Central

• Terminal delays in Amsterdam, Antwerp, and Flushing persisted all week, forcing repeated renominations of voyages and extending barge turnaround times.
• Barge operators reported split conditions—some fleets were heavily delayed, while others managed to book additional trips where congestion was lighter.
• Due to these disruptions, freight rates lightly increased, as demand remained sufficient to absorb most available tonnage.

Takeaway: Operational constraints continue to hamper barge availability, while trading activity rises.

5. Market Outlook: Firm Fundamentals with Logistical Overhang

Conclusion: Resilient End to October