Northern Europe is experiencing a steady decline in diesel demand, with reductions of 1–3% annually. While gasoline demand has remained relatively stable, it too is projected to decline as electrification and environmental regulations reshape transportation and energy use.
Several interlinked factors are contributing to this structural shift. First, the rapid electrification of vehicle fleets across the continent is a major driver. Countries in Northeast Europe are particularly aggressive in phasing out internal combustion engines in favor of electric vehicles (EVs), spurred on by generous subsidies and evolving infrastructure. Secondly, stringent EU emissions targets are making fossil fuels less viable, with penalties for exceeding carbon thresholds and incentives for cleaner alternatives.
These changes directly impact stakeholders across the liquid bulk supply chain. Terminal operators and distributors must reconsider long-term storage and blending strategies. If diesel and gasoline volumes drop steadily, the throughput models on which many tank farms were built will need to be recalibrated. At the same time, refiners must adapt their product slates to align with shifting demand profiles, and possibly integrate biofuels or e-fuels into their operations.
Moreover, these trends introduce uncertainty in fuel pricing, infrastructure investments, and asset utilization. Storage economics may shift, making some assets less viable while increasing demand for more versatile or modular infrastructure. Logistics providers and port authorities will also need to align with evolving modal mixes and regulatory frameworks.
Looking ahead, the declining demand for traditional fuels may create new opportunities in alternative energy storage and distribution. Terminals that embrace this transition early could become regional leaders in hydrogen, ammonia, or battery storage infrastructure.
This isn’t merely a fluctuation—it’s a long-term transformation. Companies that act now to future-proof their operations will be best positioned for profitability and relevance in a decarbonized Europe.
Is your organization prepared for a fuel mix dominated by low-carbon alternatives? Now is the time to assess your asset strategy and market positioning.
