1. Freight Rates: Mostly Flat, Small Downward Moves
- On 4–5 September, freight rates held steady across all destinations, with only minor tweaks for Basel (down by €0.02).
- By 8 September, spot deals were concluded at slightly lower levels, with Duisburg and Strasbourg down €0.25–0.50, and Basel dropping nearly €0.45.
Takeaway: Freight rates are locked in a narrow range, with Basel showing the most movement but still trending lower overall.
2. Water Levels: High and Supportive
Hydrology supported efficient loading throughout the week:
- Maxau hovered above 500 cm, briefly touching 600 cm on 6 September before easing to 542 cm by the 10th.
- Kaub remained consistently above 200 cm, with drafts between 277–331 cm, allowing intakes above 2000 tons for 110m barges.
- Forecasts pointed to gradual declines but still sufficient depths for full operational flexibility.
Takeaway: River conditions remain favorable for Upper Rhine voyages, further reducing upward rate pressure.
3. Market Activity: Thin and Fragmented
- On 4 September, hardly any demand was reported, with just three deals concluded and most operators busy with COA and time-chartered trips.
- 5 September saw similarly low activity, with only a handful of spot deals.
- The busiest day was 8 September, when seven deals/offers were recorded, though volumes were still modest.
- By 10 September, just one deal was logged, reflecting the week’s underwhelming tone.
Takeaway: Despite sufficient barge supply, demand remains too thin to generate market momentum.
4. Structural Drivers: Backwardation and High Stocks
The market continues to face familiar structural headwinds:
- Backwardation in gasoil discouraged stockpiling and speculative imports, keeping volumes low.
- Inland stocks remained adequate, and domestic supply often outcompeted ex-ARA flows, especially for middle distillates.
- Even with agricultural and transport demand expected for September, fresh spot appetite remained subdued.
Takeaway: Fundamentals remain stacked against a freight rate recovery.
5. Outlook: Waiting for Demand or Draft Pressure
Looking forward:
- Water levels are expected to drop gradually at Maxau and Kaub, but forecasts suggest they will remain sufficient for efficient intakes.
- Unless demand picks up from seasonal consumption or refinery disruptions, freight rates will likely remain rangebound.
- Operators may face further challenges keeping barges employed without deep spot demand.
Takeaway: Any near-term volatility will come from hydrology, not demand fundamentals.
Conclusion: A Market in Standby Mode
The Rhine barge freight market in early September was defined by high water, low demand, and flat rates. Despite ample logistical capacity, trading remained minimal, with Basel the only route showing modest rate shifts. Until stronger demand or water constraints emerge, Rhine freight is set to remain quiet and competitive.
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