The final week of August and the start of September saw the Rhine freight market in a state of low demand, soft trading activity, and stable rates. Despite small daily adjustments on Upper Rhine routes, overall pricing held flat, as oversupply of barges and backwardated product markets continued to weigh on sentiment.
1. Freight Rates: Mostly Flat, Basel Shows Minor Weakness
- On 27 August, rates dropped across the board, with Basel losing close to 1 €/ton while other destinations fell by 0.50–1.00 €/ton.
- By 29 August, activity was so quiet that no new spot deals were registered; rates remained unchanged.
- Into early September, 2 September brought another small downward correction, with Basel shedding about 2 €/ton while Frankfurt, Karlsruhe, and Strasbourg also dipped.
- On 3 September, all destinations remained flat, with Basel edging marginally lower but still close to its four-week low.
Takeaway: Basel remains the rate that dropped the most, but overall Rhine freight rates stayed anchored by weak demand and high barge availability.
2. Water Levels: Enough Depth, But Forecasts Diverge
- Maxau held around 494–550 cm through late August, before stabilizing above 520 cm by early September.
- Kaub moved between 162 cm on 28 August and nearly 200 cm by 2 September, keeping intakes stable at over 2000 tons for 110-meter barges.
- Forecasts suggested slight increases into early September, which helped keep intakes high and logistical concerns minimal.
Takeaway: Hydrology was supportive, with no immediate draft constraints.
3. Market Activity: Demand Remains Thin
- Trading activity was extremely light: just 2–6 deals per day on most sessions.
- On 29 August, no new fixtures were recorded, reflecting complete inertia in the spot market.
- Freighters struggled to keep barges employed, with many reporting idle tonnage despite operational availability.
Takeaway: Charterers have largely covered their needs via contracts, leaving the spot market with minimal liquidity.
4. Market Drivers: Backwardation and High Stocks
- Reports consistently highlighted ongoing backwardation, discouraging stockpiling and limiting imports.
- Ample inland production and sufficient stocks made local supply more attractive than ex-ARA imports.
- Even with refinery maintenance announced at Shell Pernis from September to November, no near-term demand boost was visible.
Takeaway: Structural market factors continue to suppress Rhine freight demand despite otherwise favorable logistics.
5. Outlook: Low Activity Until a Demand Catalyst Emerges
Looking ahead, Rhine freight rates are likely to remain rangebound unless:
- Water levels fall significantly, reducing intakes and tightening supply, or
- Product spreads flatten, encouraging stockbuilding and imports.
For now, both conditions appear unlikely, suggesting continued soft trading into mid-September.
Conclusion: A Market in Stasis
The Rhine barge freight market in late August and early September remained quiet, oversupplied, and structurally weak. Rates are flat, water levels are supportive, but demand is absent. Freight operators face a waiting game—keeping tonnage moving with minimal margin while watching for the next macro or hydrological shift to reawaken the market.
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