The Rhine CPP barge market remained remarkably subdued throughout the week of 24–28 November, with almost no freight rate movement until the final day, when Upper Rhine routes saw a slight downward adjustment. Despite high water levels and full loading capacity, spot demand remained weak, leaving operators with growing scheduling gaps and little opportunity to keep their fleets fully employed. Backwardation in gasoil futures and tepid buying interest continued to suppress chartering appetite, reinforcing a market stuck in neutral.
1. Freight Rates: Flat All Week, Then a Small Drop on Friday
- 24 November had fully unchanged rates. No changes registered across all destinations. Gasoil backwardation and calm trading kept spot prices frozen.
- Despite higher water levels at Maxau (approaching 600 cm), no deals prompted a shift in pricing on 25 November. Operators reported charterers postponing fixtures to next week.
- Rates again remained unchanged by 26 November. High water levels (Maxau >600 cm) and rising Kaub levels signaled strong intakes, yet demand was too soft to move the market.
- Even with negotiations ongoing, prices remained identical to previous reports, as weak demand and easing backwardation kept the market soft but stable.
- By 28 November, a slight downtick occurred on Karlsruhe (–€0.75), Strasbourg (–€0.75), and Basel (–€1.59). All Lower Rhine prices remained unchanged.
Takeaway: A full week of immobility ended with mild rate declines on Upper Rhine lanes, reflecting accumulated vessel oversupply and weak inland demand.
2. Water Levels: High, Stable, and Offering Full Intakes
High water supported full loadings every day:
- 24 November: Maxau rose from 435 cm with a forecast toward 605 cm, providing full navigability and allowing maximum intakes on all routes.
- 25 November: Maxau remained close to 600 cm, while Kaub climbed to 316 cm, creating excellent navigation conditions throughout the Rhine system.
- 26 November: Maxau moved further above 600 cm and Kaub was forecast to rise from 151 cm to 299 cm, ensuring uninterrupted operations with full draft capacity.
- 27 November: Maxau shifted from 616 cm down to 416 cm and Kaub held near 252 cm; despite the downward trend, both gauges remained well within levels that support unrestricted intakes.
- 28 November: Maxau eased from 572 cm to 520 cm and Kaub from 287 cm to 222 cm, still comfortably inside the thresholds required for full intakes along the Rhine.
Takeaway: Water levels consistently supported maximum intakes, removing hydrology as a source of rate pressure.
3. Market Activity: Calm to Silent, With Operators Struggling to Keep Fleets Busy
Spot demand remained weak throughout the period:
- 24 November: Six deals were reported, with demand remaining limited as charterers purchased only what they deemed absolutely necessary.
- 25 November: Three deals took place, as charterers held off for clearer water-level forecasts and showed preference for loadings scheduled early the following week.
- 26 November: Another three deals were recorded, and operators noted growing difficulty in keeping their spot fleets fully occupied.
- 27 November: Four deals were concluded, with negotiations continuing but more vessels becoming available for prompt loading amid persistent weak demand.
- 28 November: Activity slowed to just two deals, with both charterers and operators largely inactive and most fleets already planned for the weekend.
Takeaway: Activity decreased steadily over the week, culminating in very low spot engagement and noticeable fleet underutilization.
4. Market Drivers: Weak Demand, Softer Backwardation, and Ample Supply
- Backwardation weakens: The Dec–Jan gasoil spread narrowed sharply to about $14/ton by 27 November, as noted in market commentary, reducing the incentive for charterers to delay imports or hold off on stocking decisions.
- Demand remains soft: Charterers consistently pointed to weak inland consumption and muted product demand as key reasons for limited spot activity throughout the week (24, 27, and 28 November).
- Excess barge availability increases: Midweek observations indicated growing challenges for operators in keeping their fleets employed, highlighting a clear rise in surplus tonnage.
Takeaway: The Rhine market is well-supplied with barges, keeping freight rates under pressure.
5. Outlook: Potential Downward Pressure if Water Levels Fall
With water levels forecast to gradually decline (especially at Maxau and Kaub), some intake restrictions could emerge in early December. However, unless demand increases meaningfully, the freight market is more likely to see further softening than tightening.
Conclusion
During the week of 24–28 November, the Rhine barge freight market remained exceptionally quiet, with freight rates frozen for four consecutive sessions before slipping slightly on Upper Rhine routes at the end of the week. High water levels ensured full intakes across all destinations, but spot demand remained weak, weighed down by subdued inland consumption and soft backwardation in gasoil markets. As operators struggled to keep their fleets sufficiently employed and more barges became available for prompt loading, charterers showed little urgency to book additional tonnage. Together, these dynamics produced a stable but softening environment, leaving the Rhine market directionless and vulnerable to further rate erosion heading into December.
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